Is it Time to Shift to More Safety?

Written By: Alex, Hammersley, CPA

Recently, many investors and analysts have viewed the stock market as uncertain, and many believe the United States has a high chance of going into a recession. Further, there are new talks about the possibility of a federal government shutdown in the next few months. There is plenty of doom and gloom circulating in the air. However, we want to recognize the GOOD that has happened this year. Since the beginning of 2023 the NASDAQ Composite, according to Yahoo Finance, has increased nearly 32%. The increase we have seen in the overall stock market is remarkable, considering the high inflation and high-interest rate environment companies have faced during 2023. We like to call this year’s stock market increase “true” or “organic,” because companies, and their stock prices, have not been assisted by PPP loans (free money from the government), and investors have not been handed stimulus checks (also free money from the government) allowing them to throw some extra change in the stock market. In 2023, we are seeing companies fight through less-than-ideal economic circumstances to produce real and healthy earnings.

With all of this said a question we ask at Carlson when we experience a nice rally in stocks is: “Should we take gains from the market and shift safer into a Fixed Indexed Annuity (FIA)?” Recently, we have found that the answer is, “Yes.” Now is a good time to shift money from the Roof into the Foundation (see the definition of both “Roof” and “Foundation” at the end of this blog). Now, clients will find that the Roof portion of their money has grown to be a larger portion of their total assets. Shifting stocks over to an FIA will help get clients back to their targeted allocation (i.e., 40% of total invested assets in Roof and 60% in Foundation). Then, as the Roof portion of your portfolio continues to grow, in the future we would do this process again – take stocks and shift them into FIAs to lock in gains realized in the stock market. Getting your money into an FIA will guarantee that you cannot lose what you shifted out of the stock market. Also, you still have the potential to see some nice earnings over the life of the annuity. To dive into the specifics of what the Fixed Indexed Annuity would look like, we highly recommend you talk to your advisor. They can lay out the terms and potential outcomes of the product.  

The purpose of this shifting strategy is to prolong your retirement money and avoid losing some of your stock market growth to another bear market. Also, adding to your foundation gives you a larger bucket of money to pull from when you experience a bear market. While stocks are down, instead of selling stocks low, we can take 7 to 10% penalty-free withdrawals out of the FIAs to fund your income needs.

Definitions:

Roof: The most volatile portion of your invested assets but also the most potential for growth. Examples of Roof investments would be stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds.

Foundation: The least volatile portion of your invested assets with an opportunity for some growth. Examples of Foundation investments would be cash, money markets, CDs, and Fixed Indexed Annuities.

Say What?

It’s not quite getting cut. Instead, it’s … quiet cutting. A new trend among employers involves “reassigning” workers in corporate restructuring moves to help avoid letting staff go. But there’s a bit more to it than that. It appears the workers are being reassigned to new positions that they’ll be miserable in, prompting them to eventually quit on their own. 

This week in history

1851 – The New York Times was founded by Henry Jarvis Raymond and George Jones. It was first published under the name of the New York Daily Times.

1970 – The first New York City Marathon was run, with 127 competitors who paid $1 each to compete.

1994 (Sept. 14) – MLB Commissioner Bud Selig announced the cancelation of the 1994 season after more than 30 days of the players’ strike. The strike lasted a total of 232 days.

2004 (Sept. 13) – In one of the greatest stunts in the history of TV, Oprah Winfrey gave away nearly 300 cars to everyone in her live studio audience.

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